Ny medlem fudgevalley

[fudgevalley]

Hejsan och tack för att jag hittade detta forum.

Jag har länge funderat på att investera i metaller i synnerhet guld som alltid  hägrat (möjligen en skada sedan Lucky Luke när man var barn), dock har mina finansiella medel samt rädslan/ovisseheten och intem inst okunskapen satt stop för detta. Efter att ha pluggar internationella relationer i synnerhet IPE (International Political Economy), så har jag nu blivit mer och mer övertygad att guld is the way to go.

Här är grunden till "min övertygelse" :

Guld är den bästa och stabilaste markören för att pegga världens valutor mot Dollarn/Euron är bara stora skämt. Att vi misslyckades med den första och sedan andra guldstandarden var för att det fanns fundamental fel i båda angående deras skötsel, nedan förklaras varför.

Ursäkta för engelskan men jag orkar inte översätta alla mina anteckningar, samt att vissa saker kan vara svåra att följa, mycket repetition osv, detta för att anteckningarna var ämnade just för mig. OBS! I texten nedan så hävdar jag inte att allt är hundra 100% rätt men det är vad jag har fått ut av alla 1000tals sidor text. Det finns en berättelse men flera analyser och utvärderingar, detta är min

Första guldstandardens födelse:
The British Empire was the only the one who wanted to use gold, others used bimetallism (managed exchange rates in the mint), therefore the values of gold and silver was different from country to country also there was the problem of % of silver and gold used in the mints.  These different ratios led to imbalances between countries (mint manipulation). After the French Prussian war the gold standard one was adopted after Britain + Portugal and Germany also joined in on the the gold standard, then everyone followed because of network externalities. (the more it’s used the better it is)

Första guldstandarden och dess funktioner (1871-1914 Inflation/Deflation, flexible prices)
Price specie mechanism (Hume) It is impossible for a economy to maintain a favorable balance of trade continuously.
   I: Pay with gold, therefore the gold is increasing in your country which will lead to inflation.
   II: Everything becomes more expensive, pay more salary and for goods.
   III: Exports go down due to the price raise, imports go up instead

Why did the Gold Standard I work?:
There should have been a lot of gold shipments from surplus to deficit countries, however it did not happen (symmetry surplus and deficit countries should balanced each other back and forth).
   A), At that time British Empire and colonies paid the way.
   B), International and national linked thru inflation and deflation.
Keep in mind:    
A), There’s no domestic consideration only international consideration automatic adjustment mechanism.
B), Separation from economics and politics (does not matter) otherwise it does not work.
 
First World War crashes the gold standard I, however was it stable?
It worked in the core but not anywhere else. The adjustment mechanisms politics should not have been involved at all. Just certain things should have been provided, central banks, mints etcetera, but never ever touch the adjustment mechanism it will only make things worse.

Andra guldstandarden och dess funktioner(1926-1932 Great depression) Devaluation, no flexible prices)

Why did it fail?
A), Rise of nationalism and rise of democracies created new expenditures in a war torn Europe.
B), There was no trust like before in the core (no hegemony to support, the British Empire was gone)
C), Almost every country had inflation to pay for the war even hyperinflation (hyperinflation 50% everyday Germany created a new currency to avert this.
D), Everyone had a floating exchange rate during the war. To make matters worse there was no hegemony to support this floating expenditure.
E), France and the U.S pegged to the pre war gold standards. Which meant in real terms money was worth less
   
Management
Usually the use inflation and deflation are tools used to avert crisis, but during Gold Standard II deflation was necessary to bolster competition, however could not be done to protect the worker (new social expenditure). Gold standard I prices were flexible. Gold standard II they were not flexible so II had to explode.(Price specie mechanism requires flexible prices, but countries did not want to do that). It is unacceptable to have a system with high deflation or high inflation but some is okay.
Under the new democracies deflation necessary to bolster competition, however this was not done in order to protect the worker.

The Fall of Gold Standard II
It was set to be an automatic mechanism, domestic concern no longer a concern of the international. However countries now under nationalism looked at their own domestic affairs first contrary to the first gold standard. Under the first gold standard if there was a crisis the bank of England acted as lender of last resort, no more under the second gold standard, NO COOPERATION you are now alone which is not sustainable in the long run. The disturbance in the periphery came to the core, usually the use inflation and deflation to counter crisis, but here they could not do that. (the rise of nationalism and democracies social expenditures no trust at all)

Finally the rise of Nazi Germany and the Great Depression stopped the gold standard II 

Bretton Woods (1944-1973) Interest rates
The Bretton Woods was created as a international monetary management system in the end of World War II. The Bretton Woods system was the first example of a fully negotiated monetary order between nations. The core of Bretton Woods: capital controls and obligations for each country keep the exchange rate by tying its currency to the U.S. dollar with the help of IMF acting as a lender of last resort keeping a fixed exchange rate.

Two Economists and Their Ideas What Bretton Woods should Become
   Keynes: 1: Focuses on full employment primacy on national programs. Inflation and deflation 2: Control of capital mobility (reduce capital flights state controls) 3: Fixed exchange rates. 4: Clearing union – Bancor to settle all deficits and surpluses to adjust to imbalances. !!Symmetrical!!   
   White: 1: No capital controls. 2: Supranational institutions to tell each state what to do (veto) focusing on deficit countries only (have to reform), not surplus countries. 3: !!Asymmetrical!!

The Pillars of  Bretton Woods
To protect their national autonomy (capital controls and fixed exchange rates) Bretton Woods became more like the Whites plan but how? 1: Fixed exchange rates, the creation of 2: IMF (only consulting power compromise between Keynes and White, coordinates between states), 3: capital controls. 4: Asymmetric adjustment mechanism (only deficit countries adjust).
+World Bank
+ITO (never created) became the GATT-> WTO
+Focus on nation states (only is state’s themselves cannot take care of it then they go to the IMF)
Countries try and solve their problems themselves then if everything else fails the IMF steps in as the lender of last resort.
Interest rates in the national economy: Central bank sets the interest rates this has two functions: Lowering interest rates leads to more spending, credit is cheaper more for the same amount of money, economic growth. Internationally investment goes up in the country.

 
Unholy Trinity
Why did they create Bretton Woods? Because the unholy trinity: Capital mobility, fixed exchange rates and national monetary policy. You cannot have these three on the same time.
“A country can only achieve two of these objectives at the same time. With perfect capital mobility and a stable exchange rate, a country has to give up monetary policy. A country that wants to have perfect capital mobility and monetary policy autonomy has to be willing to let its exchange rate float. And finally, a country that wants to have a stable exchange rate and conduct an independent monetary policy will have to impose restrictions on the mobility of capital.”

Did Bretton Woods work? Two problems:
I: U.S had too much power, only one country had autonomous monetary policies no one else.
II: Triffin dilemma U.S had gold but it was limited, countries wanted to convert to dollar, but U.S had no more gold, therefore it broke down.

Why did Bretton Woods collapse?
Rise of private capital streams (banks), capital controls did not work, an increase in capital mobility, so they had to let the exchange rates float, to restore the national autonomy. Better to have flexible exchange rates and monetary policy. Triffin Dilemma and the Vietnam War

What is the Triffin Dilemma?
Only the dollar was tied to the gold, to encourage growth and trade, dollars had to be printed. U.S always had a capital account deficit (printing money should lead to inflation but other states bought dollars to absorb the demand). If you print more dollars it cannot be backed up by the value of the gold and overtime it loses value. The system gets eroded, everyone loses faith in the currency because too much is printed (devaluation).
The options of printing less did not exist because the U.S had to print more to because it was the international reserve, therefore they printed more which led to inflation.

Post Bretton Woods System Even Today
Today what happens when interest rate goes up? Domestic Interest(UP) Saving(UP) Investment(DOWN) internationally (the currency appreciates)):
Bretton Woods collapses (1973), IMF tried to save the scraps of the system, with fixed exchange rates.

Change in today’s system
Rise of private actors and new set of institutions, hedge funds, investment banks, private regulatory institutions, public funds. Today trillions of dollars are being traded every day much more than any country. 


Efter Bretton Woods så har vi upplevt 4 kriser som ytterligare har stärkt min övertygelse om att guld är det enda rätta. Den Latin Amerikanska krisen 1975, EMS krisen 1992, Asien krisen 1999 samt den nuvarande Subprimmrtage krisen sm ahr förstört USA. Hanteringen av alla ovanstående är bortom  all förklaring, men nu sitter vi här med USA som kan kursa med Grekland, Italien och många andra står på ruinens brant. Därför är jag övertygad att guld kommer att bli standard igen. Dollar är skräp, Euro och Yen är båda lika flukturerande det enda rätta är guld. Guld finns inte i överdrift och kan inte produceras i samma takt som sedlar och mynt.

Eftersom jag är övertygad om att guld är säkert och att det kommer att öka i pris, så ser jag därför ingen anledning att inte köpa det. Jag hoppas nu med eran kunskap och vägledning att köpa på mig av detta.

MVH
Jonathan

[Silverräven]

Hej och välkommen hit! Det verkar som du är påläst nog för att fatta beslutet att bevara en del av ditt värde i form av guld. Du kommer antagligen trivas fint här i disussionerna, det finns som du säkert märkt hur mycket som helst på området

[fudgevalley]

Tack jo jag har föstått detta, otroligt intressant, mycket att lära sig!

[MrLibertad]

Tjena Fudgevalley och välkommen till forumet.

[Baltikinkasso]

Det där med att guld varit lockande sedan barnsben känner jag igen! Jag minns någon (svensk?) TV-serie från (80-talet?) som handlade om en stöld av (Boliden?)guldtackor, och redan då var guld det häftigaste som fanns. Jag frågade vad en guldtacka kostade, hur mycket den vägde och var man kunde köpa. Veckopengen visade sig inte räcka speciellt långt - den gången...

Välkommen!

[fudgevalley]

Tackar till er bada!

@ Baltikinkasso: Jo det har ju alltid hagra på ett eller annat sätt, allt ifrån pirat historier till Nazist guld i filmer! ^^